Madsen Pirie

Predictions have a habit of bouncing back to bite you.  2012 began with weather forecasters telling us that the UK faced a year of drought and that it would take months of continuous rain to restore water tables.  There were even early hosepipe bans, but the year finished as the wettest on record.

Bearing this in mind I make two predictions.  The first is that the Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded to an undeserving candidate whom the awards committee approve of politically.  In the spirit of recent previous winners such as Al Gore, Barack Obama and the European Union, it will go to someone in favour with fashionable people who lean to the left.

My second prediction is that the UK will continue its retreat from closer European Union.  As the members of the Eurozone seek closer ties with each other, which was always a logical consequence of the single currency, the UK will be seen as an impediment to progress.  There will be increasing talk of Britain acquiring some kind of associate membership of the EU, with access to its single market, but no longer required to accept government by the European Commission, the European Parliament, or the European Courts.  If it is part of the price they must pay for political union, the other EU members will allow Britain to go its separate way.  By the close of 2013, this will be so overwhelmingly popular with the British public that it will seem inevitable.

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